Oregon’s Taxpayers Set to Receive Nearly $1.8 Billion Rebate Thanks to New Revenue Forecast
In a surprising turn of fiscal fortune, newly appointed Oregon State Economist Carl Riccadonna has released a revenue forecast indicating that taxpayers could expect nearly $1.8 billion in rebates in early 2026, significantly higher than the previous estimate of $1 billion just three months prior. The revelation comes from Riccadonna’s first quarterly forecast, showing that the state will collect an additional $950 million in the current two-year budget period.
The forecast also predicts a further increase of $1.3 billion in the 2025-27 budget cycle. As lawmakers prepare for the upcoming legislative session, this influx of revenue will provide much-needed flexibility to fund vital programs, including infrastructure, education, and wildfire prevention.
The forecast’s optimistic outlook is attributed to a reassessment of the national economic landscape and a revision of the predictive model used by Riccadonna’s predecessor, Mark McMullen, who resigned after years of underestimating tax revenues. Riccadonna emphasized that earlier models failed to consider how “kicker” refunds—rebates prompted by excess tax collections—had created distortions in revenue forecasting.
Oregon’s kicker law mandates that any surplus above 2% of expected revenues must be returned to taxpayers, and this latest projection suggests future refunds could eclipse previous averages. Furthermore, an anticipated increase in corporate income taxes, estimated at $140 million, is expected to channel over $1 billion to K-12 education through the corporate kicker mechanism.
While Riccadonna’s approach may carry risks, including potential overestimations, he aims to provide lawmakers with a more accurate financial picture—a shift welcomed by a state still reeling from previous inaccuracies in budget projections.
Source
Photo credit www.opb.org