Oregon lawmakers and taxpayers received a huge financial boost with the release of the state’s first-ever quarterly revenue forecast by newly hired State Economist Carl Riccadonna. Riccadonna predicted that the state would generate nearly $950 million more in revenue than previously estimated for the current two-year budget period. This means taxpayers can expect nearly $1.8 billion back in early 2026 as part of the state’s “kicker” tax rebate program.
Additionally, Riccadonna projected an extra $1.3 billion in revenue for the 2025-27 budget cycle. The optimistic forecast is expected to provide lawmakers with more room for budgeting, especially in key areas like roads, schools, wildfire prevention, and other essential services.
The increase in revenue is not due to a sudden bonanza in Oregon but rather Riccadonna’s incorporation of a more positive economic outlook for the nation into the forecast. The economist and his team found that past forecasters had not included reduced tax revenues from kicker refunds in their models, leading to distorted forecasts over the years.
While some lawmakers expressed concern that the accurate forecasts might impact future kicker rebates, others welcomed the news as a sign of Oregon’s strong economic position. The new forecast also suggests that over $2 billion could be set aside or spent in the current budget cycle, providing opportunities to fund essential programs or make further investments in the state’s economy.
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