Moscow’s reputation for delaying negotiations remains intact, as President Putin has yet to provide a promised memorandum for a peace agreement with Ukraine, despite recent talks between the two leaders. The Kremlin asserts that the document is nearly finalized, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposing new direct talks with Ukraine on June 2. Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, criticized Russia for its delays and urged the Kremlin to deliver its memorandum, noting that Kyiv has already submitted its proposals.
Additionally, there are calls for tougher measures against Russia, particularly targeting its “shadow fleet” of around 500 shipping vessels used for exporting oil, which have largely evaded U.S. and EU sanctions. Although the White House has expressed concerns that targeting these vessels could lead to higher energy prices, the EU and Britain announced new sanctions recently, indicating a shift in strategy. Earlier this year, the Biden administration sanctioned 183 Russian vessels, which have managed to operate without Western services and insurance, avoiding detection.
The effectiveness of sanctions on Russia’s oil revenues has been significant, with the price of Urals oil dropping from $100 per barrel in 2022 to about $65 currently, resulting in an estimated $142 billion loss to the Russian economy. However, experts believe the impact of these sanctions has not met earlier expectations. Craig Kennedy, a Harvard oil expert, noted that while Russia’s shadow fleet avoids dependence on Western entities, the sanctions regime has still succeeded in decreasing revenue, albeit not to the extent anticipated.
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